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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 28-J.Taylor right end to DEN 34 for 5 yards (92-D.Tillman).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model