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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to LA 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-35-N.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model