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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Thursday 2024-12-12 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LA
46.1%
SF
53.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.188 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
SF 25
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LA

Cobie Durant CB Out Chest
Tyler Higbee TE Out Knee
Alaric Jackson T Questionable Knee
Beaux Limmer C Questionable Knee
Davis Allen TE Questionable Shoulder
Tyler Davis DE Questionable Calf
Demarcus Robinson WR Questionable Shoulder
Jordan Whittington WR Questionable Shoulder

SF

Ben Bartch G Out Ankle
Malik Mustapha S Out Chest
Trent Williams T Out Ankle
Dre Greenlaw LB Questionable Achilles
Nick Bosa DE Questionable Hip
Khalil Davis DT Questionable Knee
Isaac Guerendo RB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 12
–
SF 6

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:06 FG SF (10:06) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. LA 0 – SF 3
  • Q2 01:10 FG LA (1:10) 16-J.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – SF 3
  • Q3 08:28 FG SF (8:28) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. LA 3 – SF 6
  • Q4 13:41 FG LA (13:41) 16-J.Karty 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 6 – SF 6
  • Q4 09:31 FG LA (9:31) 16-J.Karty 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 9 – SF 6
  • Q4 00:20 FG LA (:20) 16-J.Karty 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 12 – SF 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:10) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to LA 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:59) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to SF 19, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 26 for 7 yards (19-X.Smith).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 70%

    (10:06) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:32) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to SF 9, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 19 for 10 yards (19-X.Smith; 84-H.Long).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:01) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-9-B.Willis.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:16) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to SF 17, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 22 for 5 yards (88-J.Whittington).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:07) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to LA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:23) 42-E.Evans punts 68 yards to SF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 30 for 17 yards (35-J.Hummel; 19-X.Smith). ** Injury Update: SF-53-D.Winters has returned to the game.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%

    (13:46) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to LA 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-35-N.McCloud.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:55) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to SF 10, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:03) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LA 35, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith to LA 45 for 10 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles; 82-E.Saubert). PENALTY on SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LA 45.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 80%

    (1:10) 16-J.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:36) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to LA 22, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:21) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to SF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 37 for 12 yards (88-J.Whittington).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%

    (8:28) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 66%

    (5:06) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to SF 35 for 2 yards (97-N.Bosa; 54-F.Warner).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (13:41) 16-J.Karty 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:34) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. PENALTY on SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LA 28.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 98%

    (9:31) 16-J.Karty 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 97%

    (:20) 16-J.Karty 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.