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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to LA 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model