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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to SF 10, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.40 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP