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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 16-J.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.68 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP