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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to SF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 37 for 12 yards (88-J.Whittington).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.60 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP