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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model