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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to SF 35 for 2 yards (97-N.Bosa; 54-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model