4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 16-J.Karty 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP