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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 6 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 16-J.Karty 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP