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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 9 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(:20) 16-J.Karty 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.54 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model