Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(7:01) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-9-B.Willis.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.62 EP
47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model