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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to LA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 54, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model