Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 42-E.Evans punts 68 yards to SF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing to SF 30 for 17 yards (35-J.Hummel; 19-X.Smith). ** Injury Update: SF-53-D.Winters has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.73 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model