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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 75

Houston Texans 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-M.Washington to MIA 26 for 8 yards (11-J.Okudah; 92-D.Horton).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model