4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIA
49.1%
HOU
50.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.015 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.165 EPA/dropback
  • HOU defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU on 7 more days rest than MIA
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

D'Wayne Eskridge WR Out Knee
Terron Armstead T Doubtful Knee
Blake Ferguson LS Questionable Illness
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Knee
Grant DuBose WR Questionable Shoulder
Cameron Goode LB Questionable Knee
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Back

HOU

Cade Stover TE Out Illness
Juice Scruggs C Out Foot
Nick Broeker G Questionable Hand
Kenyon Green G Questionable Shoulder
Christian Harris LB Questionable Calf
Jamal Hill LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 12
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:12 FG HOU (7:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. MIA 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 11:40 FG MIA (11:40) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – HOU 3
  • Q2 06:51 TD HOU (6:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – HOU 9
  • Q2 02:00 FG MIA (2:00) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 6 – HOU 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. MIA 6 – HOU 13
  • Q3 11:09 TD HOU (11:09) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – HOU 19
  • Q3 04:37 TD MIA (4:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined. MIA 12 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:33) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to HOU 5, Center-46-Z.Triner. 3-T.Dell to HOU 19 for 14 yards (41-C.Tindall).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 87%

    (7:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-Z.Triner. 3-T.Dell to HOU 38 for 23 yards (56-Q.Bell).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-M.Washington.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 17 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 68%

    (11:40) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:18) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-M.Washington to MIA 26 for 8 yards (11-J.Okudah; 92-D.Horton).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-M.Washington to MIA 27 for 16 yards (29-M.Stewart; 17-K.Boyd).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 75%

    (12:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith pushed ob at HOU 25 for 9 yards (21-C.Bullock).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to MIA 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 64 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-Z.Triner. 3-T.Dell to HOU 31 for 8 yards (81-D.Smythe).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to MIA 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-46-J.Weeks.