Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 0 – Houston Texans 0

(11:33) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to HOU 5, Center-46-Z.Triner. 3-T.Dell to HOU 19 for 14 yards (41-C.Tindall).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model