Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 69

Houston Texans 20 – Miami Dolphins 12

(2:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-M.Washington to MIA 27 for 16 yards (29-M.Stewart; 17-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model