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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 34

Miami Dolphins 12 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith pushed ob at HOU 25 for 9 yards (21-C.Bullock).

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.60 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model