Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 56

Houston Texans 20 – Miami Dolphins 12

(4:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to MIA 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.06 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model