Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 87

Miami Dolphins 12 – Houston Texans 20

(3:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 64 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-Z.Triner. 3-T.Dell to HOU 31 for 8 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.23 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 87, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model