Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 74

Houston Texans 20 – Miami Dolphins 12

(1:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to MIA 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-46-J.Weeks.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.48 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model