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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 56

New England Patriots 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(6:13) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left end pushed ob at NE 46 for 2 yards (7-K.White).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model