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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NE
35.9%
ARI
64.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.114 vs Drake Maye (NE) -0.048 EPA/dropback
  • NE on 7 more days rest than ARI
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NE defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 21
–
ARI 26
Projected margin: ARI by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NE

Javon Baker WR Out Concussion
Jaquelin Roy DT Out Foot
Caedan Wallace T Out Ankle
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Not injury related - other
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Christian Gonzalez CB Questionable Shoulder
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Shoulder
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee

ARI

Emari Demercado RB Out Back
Blake Gillikin P Out Right Foot
Elijah Jones CB Out Ankle
Jonah Williams T Questionable Illness
Naquan Jones DT Questionable Shoulder
Roy Lopez DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 17
–
ARI 30

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 FG ARI (7:18) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. NE 0 – ARI 3
  • Q1 01:31 TD ARI (1:31) 4-G.Dortch left end to NE 2 for 6 yards (33-A.Jennings; 5-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (33-A.Jennings), recovered by ARI-73-J.Williams at NE -9. TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – ARI 9
  • Q2 02:06 FG NE (2:06) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – ARI 10
  • Q2 00:20 FG ARI (:20) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. NE 3 – ARI 13
  • Q3 09:12 FG ARI (9:12) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. NE 3 – ARI 16
  • Q4 10:42 TD ARI (10:42) 59-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – ARI 22
  • Q4 08:22 TD NE (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – ARI 23
  • Q4 03:29 TD ARI (3:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – ARI 29
  • Q4 02:00 TD NE (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – ARI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 75%

    (10:44) 13-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 80%

    (7:18) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:09) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to ARI 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 20 for 9 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to ARI 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 19 for 4 yards (88-J.Bell).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:40) 10-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:13) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left end pushed ob at NE 46 for 2 yards (7-K.White).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (2:06) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (:20) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (9:12) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (4:59) 61-L.Cotton and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to ARI 4 for no gain (7-K.White; 51-K.Barnes).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:58) 10-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-M.Jones to NE 33 for 6 yards (32-J.Blount).