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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 4

New England Patriots 3 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 61-L.Cotton and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to ARI 4 for no gain (7-K.White; 51-K.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 4, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model