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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 34

New England Patriots 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 13-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model