4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 31

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.27 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP