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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 44

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(13:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to JAX 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model