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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NYJ
53.3%
JAX
46.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Mac Jones (JAX): -0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYJ

Tyler Conklin TE Out Not injury related - personal matter
Brandin Echols CB Out Shoulder
Kene Nwangwu RB Out Hand
Xavier Newman-Johnson G Doubtful Groin
D.J. Reed CB Doubtful Groin
Breece Hall RB Questionable Knee
Morgan Moses T Questionable Wrist
Alijah Vera-Tucker G Questionable Ankle

JAX

Evan Engram TE Out nan

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 32
–
JAX 25

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:43 TD JAX (8:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 05:06 TD NYJ (5:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 5-G.Wilson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – JAX 7
  • Q2 02:44 FG JAX (2:44) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 7 – JAX 10
  • Q2 00:01 FG JAX (:01) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 7 – JAX 13
  • Q3 10:32 FG NYJ (10:32) 18-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 10 – JAX 13
  • Q3 08:09 FG JAX (8:09) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 10 – JAX 16
  • Q3 04:38 TD NYJ (4:38) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NYJ-0-B.Allen has returned to the game. NYJ 16 – JAX 16
  • Q4 11:04 TD JAX (11:04) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – JAX 22
  • Q4 03:34 TD NYJ (3:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – JAX 22
  • Q4 01:56 FG JAX (1:56) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 25 – JAX 25
  • Q4 01:08 TD NYJ (1:08) 20-B.Hall up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 31 – JAX 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:10) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-A.Davis. 21-A.Davis right end to JAX 44 for 21 yards (26-A.Johnson).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 43%

    (13:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to JAX 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (2:44) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to JAX 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 37 for 13 yards (21-A.Davis; 41-M.McCrary-Ball). PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 37.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (8:09) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (15:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 27 for -1 yards (37-Q.Stiggers; 29-J.Bernard-Converse).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (7:52) 18-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 38%

    (4:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to NYJ 13, impetus ends at NYJ 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 86%

    (1:56) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.