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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 10, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model