Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 78

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to JAX 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 37 for 13 yards (21-A.Davis; 41-M.McCrary-Ball). PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model