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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to NYJ 13, impetus ends at NYJ 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP