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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.52 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP