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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

TB
48.5%
LAC
51.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.103 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
LAC 25
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TB

K.J. Britt LB Out Ankle
Mike Edwards S Out Hamstring
Antoine Winfield S Out Knee
Kameron Johnson WR Out Ankle
Markees Watts LB Out Knee
Josh Hayes CB Questionable Hamstring
J.J. Russell LB Questionable Hamstring
Joe Tryon LB Questionable Ankle
Bucky Irving RB Questionable Back
Christian Izien S Questionable Groin
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Foot

LAC

Will Dissly TE Out Shoulder
Jalen Reagor WR Out Finger
Ladd McConkey WR Questionable Knee
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 40
–
LAC 17

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:20 TD TB (11:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 15-J.McMillan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 06:25 TD LAC (6:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – LAC 6
  • Q2 13:44 FG TB (13:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. TB 10 – LAC 7
  • Q2 08:51 FG LAC (8:51) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. TB 10 – LAC 10
  • Q2 07:18 TD LAC (7:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – LAC 16
  • Q2 00:37 FG TB (:37) 4-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. TB 13 – LAC 17
  • Q3 10:35 TD TB (10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – LAC 17
  • Q3 05:10 FG TB (5:10) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. TB 23 – LAC 17
  • Q3 01:42 TD TB (1:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 29 – LAC 17
  • Q4 07:43 TD TB (7:43) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 36 – LAC 17
  • Q4 02:55 FG TB (2:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. TB 40 – LAC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 99%

    (13:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 19 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (8:51) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 56%

    (3:43) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (:37) 4-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:31) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to TB 7, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 17 for 10 yards (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:02) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor. PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TB 15.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 18 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%

    (5:10) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (13:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 39%

    (6:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-D.Chark to TB 45 for 4 yards (9-J.Tryon).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%

    (2:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (:31) 44-S.Tucker right guard to LAC 26 for 4 yards (90-T.Tart).