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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(:37) 4-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.64 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model