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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model