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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(13:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model