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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37

What Actually Happened

(6:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-D.Chark to TB 45 for 4 yards (9-J.Tryon).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model