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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(:31) 44-S.Tucker right guard to LAC 26 for 4 yards (90-T.Tart).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +0.93 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP