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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP