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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to DEN 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model