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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Thursday 2024-12-19 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

DEN
48.3%
LAC
51.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.020 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 23
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DEN

Jaleel McLaughlin RB Out Quadricep
Riley Moss CB Out Knee

LAC

Will Dissly TE Out Shoulder
Cam Hart CB Out Concussion
Elijah Molden CB Doubtful Knee
Hayden Hurst TE Questionable Hip
Zion Johnson G Questionable Ankle
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Groin
Otito Ogbonnia DT Questionable Pelvis

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 27
–
LAC 34

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:37 TD DEN (7:37) 23-A.Estime right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 03:15 TD LAC (3:15) 62-S.Mustipher reported in as eligible. 4-G.Edwards right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – LAC 6
  • Q2 12:22 TD DEN (12:22) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 20-M.Burton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – LAC 7
  • Q2 08:53 FG LAC (8:53) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 14 – LAC 10
  • Q2 06:26 TD DEN (6:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-D.Vele for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:00 FG LAC (:00) 11-C.Dicker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Holder-16-J.Scott. Fair-Catch Kick. DEN 21 – LAC 13
  • Q3 08:34 FG DEN (8:34) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 24 – LAC 13
  • Q3 03:02 TD LAC (3:02) (Shotgun) 4-G.Edwards left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 24 – LAC 19
  • Q4 12:29 TD LAC (12:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 12-D.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-Z.Allen]. DEN 24 – LAC 25
  • Q4 02:36 TD LAC (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-H.Haskins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 24 – LAC 33
  • Q4 01:02 FG DEN (1:02) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 27 – LAC 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:37) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to DEN 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 93%

    (8:53) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:07) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to DEN 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to LAC 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 25 for 17 yards (41-D.Sanders; 34-J.Skinner).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 38, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on DEN-1-T.Smith, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 38.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (10:47) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 30 for 5 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 25-J.Colson).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (8:34) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 36%

    (9:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-1-T.Smith.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 20 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:49) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to DEN 45, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 34%

    (4:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%

    (1:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 85-L.Krull to LAC 48 for 4 yards (23-T.Jefferson).