Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 59

Denver Broncos 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(2:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to LAC 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 25 for 17 yards (41-D.Sanders; 34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.15 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model