4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 35

Denver Broncos 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:47) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 30 for 5 yards (23-T.Jefferson; 25-J.Colson).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model