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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 23

Denver Broncos 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP