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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 67

Denver Broncos 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model