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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 91

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to DEN 45, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 91, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model