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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 51

Denver Broncos 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to LAC 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.51 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model