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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 52

Denver Broncos 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 34

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 85-L.Krull to LAC 48 for 4 yards (23-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.81 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model